Polymarket, a US-based prediction market platform owned by Blockratize Inc., was preparing to re-enter the US market in 2025 after clearing US regulatory hurdles and securing mainstream distribution partnerships. The company was planning a token generation event to launch a native crypto token ($POLY), framed primarily as a community and utility asset rather than a capital-raising instrument. A substantial portion was to be earmarked for an airdrop to past users; however, rumours of a potential token and airdrop spurred opportunistic “airdrop farmers” and wash traders to inflate their activity metrics on the platform to qualify. Using a wallet trading dataset, Polymarket could design a systematic, data-driven approach to identifying and excluding suspected wash traders from the airdrop, but how accurate would those models be and what would be the broader strategic, regulatory, and fairness implications?
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