Canada and the United States have long coexisted as respectful neighbours who have agreed to disagree on many things while benefiting from the integration of our economies and fighting side by side to defend common values. But since winning the recent U.S. election, Donald Trump has been threatening to put a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods and suggesting he might deploy economic warfare to coerce Canada into becoming America’s 51st state. Although sweeping trade threats often give way to more limited measures, even a blanket tariff of 10 per cent could trigger a Canadian GDP contraction of 2.4 per cent, while putting 500,000 jobs at risk. Nobody knows what to expect in the days ahead and Canada needs to stop publicly issuing threats of our own until the lay of the land becomes clear. Publicly disagreeing over what Canada should do in a trade war before it even starts only makes us look weak. Pointing out America’s flaws while trying to avoid anti-Canadian policies is equally counterproductive. Canadians need to stop thinking we can sell a win–win solution directly to Trump. Let’s focus on collectively and calmly educating Americans on how trade with Canada benefits them. This can be done in partnership with U.S. interests that would be hurt in a trade war. We should also figure out how to increase internal trade while diversifying our economy and reducing our reliance on the U.S. market. Finally, we should consider giving Trump the appearance of a win by aggressively moving to meet our NATO commitments.
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