London Hydro, Inc. (London Hydro) must forecast the electricity demand of the firm’s clients. The Ontario Energy Board had just announced the results of a pilot program to introduce a new pricing scheme to residential energy consumers in Ontario. This was the origin of tiered pricing, which was based on overall monthly energy usage. In the past, consumers had all been on a time-of-use plan where energy was more expensive during peak hours and cheaper in lower-demand hours. Thus, London Hydro had to anticipate the potential change in client behaviour and predict the effects of the pricing shift.Using data it had gathered on individual household energy consumption, London Hydro hoped that by forecasting which consumers might shift to the new tiered pricing plan it could gain key insights that would help the firm understand what effects the plan might have on its revenues and on its clients’ consumption behaviours.
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