An investment analyst was tasked with determining the impact of political controversy on firm performance in the aftermath of the highly charged 2016 U.S. presidential election. After this election, U.S. firms such as New Balance, GrubHub, and PepsiCo faced boycotts from aggrieved activists. The analyst needed to better understand the downsides—and potential benefits—of firms’ involvement in political controversy. To do so, she needed to graph the impact, if any, political events had on the companies’ stock returns. But were markets truly efficient and rational—that is, could they reliably capture the impact of political controversy on firm performance?
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